Russian interests in syria pdf free

Gvosdev implies that the obama administration fell short on the former and explicitly writes that the united states seriously misread russias interests and. The resulting list does not reflect a deliberate attempt at prioritization. One type of rus sian aircraft deployed to syria, the su30is capable of engaging other aircraft in addition to ground targets. Rather than advancing its selfproclaimed objective of fighting terrorism. Sure iran could help syria alone at considerable more expense, but the syrian conflict had also taken a sectarian turn for the worst. Israel also remains under threat of crossborder attacks, in particular. Think of syria as a proxy war two powerful nations unwilling to risk the massive destruction that would accompany a direct conflict. Russias intervention in syria has introduced a dangerous new dynamic into an already volatile and complex conflict. Chaos and fragmentation within syria are creating wider openings for interests hostile to the u. Oct 21, 2015 russias intervention in syria has introduced a dangerous new dynamic into an already volatile and complex conflict. One of them is navy base in tartus, which is quite modest but is the only russian base in the mediterranean sea.

How to salvage us interests in syria fair observer. Following the october revolution 1917, and the creation of the soviet union 1922, the russian presence in syria came to an end, which continued during the french mandate period 1923. Russias 2015 military intervention in syrias civil war took many by surprise. With new missile defense for syria, russia shifts its. Government international security presidents foreign policy presidents government russian foreign relations security, international united states foreign relations. The syria crisis and the making of russias foreign policy. Slowly but surely the russian military is adapting to a more informationdriven battlefield, attempting to incorporate technologies effectively demonstrated by u. Their secondary interests are some degree of autonomy in the east and some settlement on crimea that gives russia more extensive rights there than it had before. Russian steel pipe manufacturer tmk, gas producer itera, and national carrier aeroflot also had considerable business interests in syria. Russian and american interests in syria nuclear diner.

These figures are in addition to four billion dollars of weapons that russia has sold syria. The guardian view on russian intervention in syria. Jan 30, 2017 yet russia and turkeys marriage of convenience, appears to serve both of their interests in syria. Both the russian federation and the united states have strong interests at stake in syria,and these interests overlap in part, but not completely both the united states and russia seek to ensure a stable and unified syria, though the two countries disagree on how to achieve this. But you wouldnt know that from recent commentary, like stephen walts piece touting vladimir putin as a master strategist and barack obama as bumbler. Russias best asset in the middle east andrej kreutz. Thomas points to optimistic versus pessimistic russian views on how the recent us election will impact us policy in syria. Tartous is a russian naval base but also has significant pipeline access and infrastructure. Many observers have argued that the russian military operation in syria is a bold challenge to the united states in the region.

That being said, the rumor they are moving into syria is probably false. The united states also has led nato in developing a new military posture in central and eastern europe designed to reassure allies and deter aggression. Russian involvement in the syrian civil war wikipedia. It is a defensive policy aimed mainly at developing its traditional political and economic interests in the region and protecting its southern borders.

The russianisraeli crisis over syria lacks an exit strategy. Assessing options for regime change daniel byman, michael doran, kenneth pollack, and salman shaikh. Russias economy interests behind its risky military move. In the nineteenth century, czarist russia began asserting its geo strategic, economic, religious, and cultural interests in the middle east as framed by its competition with the west. The west and irans overlapping interests in the middle easts security landscape have certainly contributed to a political environment in which officials in the us and the european union eu recognized the need to resolve the nuclear issue, and pursue efforts to work with the iranians to resolve the conflicts in iraq, syria and yemen. Oct 22, 2018 on october 7, the security service of ukraine sbu published a list of 206 nonstaff servicemen of the main intelligence directorate of the russian armed forces who operated as a part of the wagner private military company pmc and participated in the military operations in syria in the interests of the russian federation, including combat engagements in february 2018 in deir ezzor. Jan 05, 2018 russia went into syria when its economy was in dire straits due to lower than expected oil prices and when putins credibility was suffering after the ukraine revolution in 2014. Moscow worked to build diplomatic and cultural ties, especially in syria and palestine, to create constituencies on which it could later rely for support.

The russian government needs to leave syria with a victory to bring back to the russian people. As long as turkish president recep tayyip erdogan remains in charge and russia stays on its present course, the russian. According to moscow times, russians have invested more than 4. Russian aircraft began bombing missions against opponents of the assad regime at the end of september 2015. The authors of this report assess where and under what conditions moscow could intervene again by analyzing the factors that drive russian decisionmaking on intervention. Obamas administration abandoned mubarak, a longtime american ally, yet the kremlin. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian. In march 2012, critics saw the position of the naval facility in tartus as a chief motivating factor for russia to speak out in favor of the assad government maintaining stability in the region. The russian intervention in syria, which was the actual cause of the rupturethe air incident was a pretexthas undercut turkeys policies in its near neighborhood and materially damaged its interests in syria.

Ifri is a research center and a forum for debate on major international political and economic issues. The talks in russias black sea resort town of sochi underscored the various interests at play in syria russia and iran as key backers of president bashar alassad, and turkey seeking to. Common goals and interests of iran and russia in syria. Russianturkish ties ever since the outbreak of civil war in syria in 2011, turkey and russia have found themselves increasingly at odds. Dec 22, 2018 israeli russian relations strained following u. Russian political, economic, and security issues and u. In 2009, qatar was rebuffed by syria for their pipeline proposal that would have allowed qatar access to the eu market. Russian objectives in syria the russian deployment to syria likely supports multiple objectives. Syria is a logical anchor point extending through trading partners, collective security treaty organization members, and other treaty partners in a loose cooperative effort. Martin dempsey, secretary of state john kerry and defense secretary.

Despite divergent interests, iran, turkey and israel cooperate with russia and acknowledge its leadership in syria. Let moscow, or tehran, explain why that would not be a. Iran and israel may never get along, but both learn to live. A logic all its own russian operational art in the syrian. For their part, russian companies have interests in oil and gas projects in countries such as iraq, iran, saudi arabia, libya, algeria, and others.

In this regard, russia s decision to stand with its ally is especially important. Its mission is to be an analytical, researchled global forum for informing, influencing and. Syria has long been a consumer of russian weaponry, and the arms trade only intensified after assad and putin came to power in 2000. Russia, turkey and iran agree to coordinate on syria amid. Jun 19, 2018 recently, a gathering of russian and venezuelan scholars at the woodrow wilson center in washington analyzed the security purposes of russias interests in venezuela today. Arguably, if the analytical community had more effectively understood russia s interests, objectives, and. Israel, iran and the war for syria geopolitical futures. The syria war has now entered its 8th year with international and regional powers all trying to secure their interests. Russias strategic interest in syria themarketswork. On 30 september 2015, russia approved a request by president putin to. Russian banks have supported the financial system of syria since the start of the civil war and its companies have invested. Widespread presence of the russian oil and gas companies in syria is also remarkable. Russia relationship and brought into sharp focus the incompatibility of washingtons interests in syria with those of moscow. For russia, syria represents one of two pillars of its strategy in.

Russia and turkey reach deal to push kurdish forces out of. Given this durable alliance russia has developed many interests in syria. Commercial and military interests in syria have solidified russian support for assad. Optimistically, some feel that the election of donald trump may diminish the us security threat, offer russia new opportunities in the region, and thus allow russia to prioritize other interests than it has been. Following russian intervention in the syrian war on september 30, 2015, began to turn in favor of the assad regime for the. The center promotes the rigorous study of modernday russia and eurasia through objective analysis, academic publications and public events geared towards audiences on both sides of the atlantic. As neither isis nor any other syrian opposition groups pos. The russian naval facility in tartus in syria is russias only naval facility in the mediterranean region and only remaining military facility outside the former ussr. Russias new posture is challenging israels defensive campaign against iran, and moscow and jerusalem have so far been unable to defuse the crisis. In syria, an attack on russias narrative geopolitical futures. Russia is hoping this gambit will ratchet down the free forall air war over syria, and force the various players to step back and mediate their interests in the region through moscow. Turkeys airforce is not able to change that picture.

A sustainable strategy to contain is and undermine its recruitment efforts. The strategic interests at play in us debate over syria. Russias success in imposing its agenda in syria has bolstered its influence throughout the wider region. Its quite obvious that russian companies in syria are. The strategic logic behind irans support for syria is based on two interests. Such disputes can be resolved, as us history shows. Many in the western policy community were surprised by russia s actions. Russia holds the strategic port of tartous in syria. Israel has five main objectives in the syrian conflict.

But israel does have critical security interests that it seeks to advance in syria principally, minimizing iranian and russian influence in syria, blocking the transfer of advanced weapons to hezbollah, preventing syria from posing a credible military threat to israel or permitting iran to do so, undermining the legitimacy of syrias claims. Israels interests and options in syria ebook, 2016. The us could begin by limiting the damage of the syrian conflict to its wider regional stability and counterterrorism goals. This perspective seeks to identify the important elements of russian interests in the middle east beyond syria, to define the nature of russian engagement in the region, and to describe the contours of a russian strategy in the middle east. Russian material interests in syria are also overstated, although russia still hopes to entrench itself in the regional politics of the middle east. Operating in the interests of the mod of the russian. First, to use syria as a safe conduit to provide multifaceted support to the lebanese hezbollahtehrans vital. In 1893, the russian empire established a consular office in damascus, then a part of ottoman syria. The chapter also explores how kurdish armed groups, which occupy a distinctive position in the conflict, view irans involvement. Finally, i will readily admit that there could be a russian rationale for an intervention in syria.

It enables russia to pursue the limited objective of securing its military interests on the syrian coast, where the port of tartus is russia s only remaining middle east base and where many dual russiansyrian citizens live. The center on global interests cgi is a 501c3 nonprofit foreignpolicy research institution founded in 2012. Realist political thought is said to focus on national interests. Russias policy on syria after the start of military. They appear roughly in decreasing order of the attention given over the course of recent debate. Russias foreign policy towards syria and the greater middle east is generally not aggressive. Careful distilling of statements by russian leaders and russias strategic documents would reveal there are several important national interests of russia at stake in syria, including.

Russian war ships are deployed near the coast of syria and are ready to launch their cruise missiles. Of more significance is the potential impact of the syria crisis on the domestic political order of the russian state. Israel seeks to minimize iranian and russian influence in syria, block the transfer of advanced weapons to hezbollah, prevent syria from posing a credible military threat to israel or permitting iran to do so, undermine the legitimacy of syrias claims to the golan heights, and prevent sunni militants from establishing infrastructure or. Quick update on the turkey vs syria, russia and iran the. In 2011, syria accepted iraqs proposal for a pipeline to the eu market. The usrussian competition in syria at log istic support level russia has played an important role in supporting the syrian regime in confronting the armed opposition. Sep 12, 20 in the usrussia talks on syria s chemical weapons, the two countries may clash over moscows interests and american ideals. Consider too that turkey, officially part of a tripartite agreement with russia and iran to bring an end to the syrian war, has invaded syria to protect its interests from russia and iran, and yet it is equally hostile to russia and irans main enemy, the united states, because the u. Russias economy interests behind its risky military move in.

Russia can reinforce its airforce in syria within 24 hours. Russias involvement in syria has given its relatio ns with neighbouring countries a new momentum. Turkey obtains a free hand in northern syria to stymie the territorial ambitions of the u. When you look at the entire chessboard, intervening in syria is protecting russian interests and russias survival in the long run.

Oct 22, 2019 the turkeyrussia agreement came as the deadline expired on a separate deal turkey made last week with the united states to pause its advance into syria in preparation for a full ceasefire. The russian and syrian air forces are in control of the airspace over idleb. Turkey has been trying to oust assad and is a principal supporter of the various rebel groups fighting the russianbacked syrian regime. Without russian involvement, thousands more iranian lives would have been lost. The core russian interest is the military neutralization of ukraine. Debating us interests in syrias civil war mit center. Russia s po l i c y in t h e mi d d l e eas t pr o s p e c t.

Rand corporation, with little ability to affect the outcome of the syrian civil war, and with limited interest in intervening in the conflict other than to preempt or respond to attacks on its territory, israel. With the help of russian air strikes, the assad regime was able to make substantial gains against opposition forces in northern syria. Russian president vladimir putin and syrian president bashar alassad at syrias khmeimim air force base, december 2017. According to the stockholm international peace research institute, russia accounted for 78 percent of syria s weapons purchases between 2007 and 2012. Russia has goals, but to western observers they appear to be either transactional or, in the longer term. Sep 27, 2018 russia is hoping this gambit will ratchet down the free forall air war over syria, and force the various players to step back and mediate their interests in the region through moscow. Sputnik photo agency reuters after nearly seven years, the syrian civil war is finally winding down, and the middle easts various powers are looking ahead to what comes next. Gvosdev implies that the obama administration fell short on the former and explicitly writes that the united states seriously misread russias interests and intentions in syria. During all the ups and downs in the present crises engulfing middle east, one thing has remained the same the unflinching support of russia for its longtime ally syrias bashar. These realities would mean supporting the russianturkish ceasefire effort as a means of easing refugee outflows and restraining iranian gains, even if a syrian political solution is far off. The internet is flooded with rumors about a russian military intervention in syria. In this regard, russias decision to stand with its ally is.

Russia is holding a lot of the cards in the syria crisis. Russia the washington institute for near east policy. It was being advertised as such with the takfiri hordes battling the shia kuffar and islam vs the rafidhi. Israeli and russian interests in syria are colliding.

Debating us interests in syrias civil war mit center for. The russian naval facility in tartus, syria, was established during the cold war under a 1971 agreement with syria. The us russian competition in syria at log istic support level russia has played an important role in supporting the syrian regime in confronting the armed opposition. Its quite obvious that russian companies in syria are losing assets and profit because of the war. Existing military, economic, culturaleducational, and other links notwithstanding, syrias importance as a purchaser of russian arms should not be overestimated, especially given the. An analysis of american and russian national interests in syria. Syria turkey invades idleb but its bluff will be called. Congressional debate over a military strike will focus on three national security concerns. Yet russia and turkeys marriage of convenience, appears to serve both of their interests in syria. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian conflict. Several countries in the middle east also are among the few consumers of russian hightechnology exports. Or edward luttwaks paen to putins strategic brilliance. Russias 2015 military intervention in syria s civil war took many by surprise.